an thend finale of the “5 Wishes for 2025” series, Vasco Duarte tackles the chaotic nature of software development and why traditional project management just doesn’t cut it. Drawing on lessons from weather models, butterflies, and Agile practices, Vasco presents a bold manifesto for how we can thrive in uncertainty.
Chaos Theory and Software Development
“Project management is like trying to predict where a butterfly will land after flying through a hurricane – good luck with that!”
Vasco begins with the story of Edward Lorenz, the MIT meteorologist who discovered what was later called the “butterfly effect.” This concept illuminates and explains the unpredictability of software development, where tiny changes can lead to massive, unexpected consequences – like a simple tweak spiraling into a full system refactor.
Why Traditional Project Management Falls Short
“Planning your year’s meals in January? That’s about as realistic as predicting October’s sushi cravings!”
Vasco humorously dismantles the premise of project management, which assumes stability, predictability, and complete information upfront. While Agile provides a more flexible approach, it’s often misused as “project management in disguise,” failing to unlock the true potential of adaptability.
The 2025 Manifesto: A New Way to Invest in Software
“Loving Gantt charts is like loving fax machines – there’s a better way!”
Vasco outlines his four-point manifesto for how organizations can thrive in uncertainty:
Fund Software Incrementally: Treat funding like stock market investing – small, regular investments over time.
Think Like an Investor: Focus on maximizing returns, not rigidly executing plans.
Experiment by Default: Acknowledge that the best ideas come from testing and iterating.
Give Teams End-to-End Ownership: Empower teams to own their work from idea to delivery, eliminating micromanagement.
The Need for Agility at All Levels
“Scrum teams in a project management organization are like race car drivers stuck in traffic jams – all that potential, nowhere to go!”
Vasco emphasizes that agility must extend beyond individual teams. Organizations need to embrace Agile principles at every level to avoid stifling innovation and potential. And his approach to funding and managing software investments does exactly that: bring agility to the decision making forums in the organization, instead of keeping it at the team level.
A Wish for 2025: Embrace the Chaos
“Butterflies don’t follow project plans, and neither does software development!”
Vasco’s final wish for 2025 is for organizations to stop forcing software into rigid project management frameworks. Instead, they should embrace the unpredictable nature of development, leveraging incremental funding, iterative experimentation, and team empowerment to thrive in uncertainty.
See It in Action: Global Agile Summit 2025
“Want to see how real organizations are thriving in chaos? Join us in Tallinn!”
Vasco invites listeners to the Global Agile Summit 2025 in Tallinn, Estonia, where forward-thinking organizations will share their stories of breaking free from traditional project management. Holiday listeners can grab a 75% discounted Super Early Bird ticket at GlobalAgileSummit.com.
About Vasco Duarte
Vasco Duarte is a thought leader in the Agile space, co-founder of Agile Finland, and host of the Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast, which has over 10 million downloads. Author of NoEstimates: How To Measure Project Progress Without Estimating, Vasco is a sought-after speaker and consultant helping organizations embrace Agile practices to achieve business success.
You can link with Vasco Duarte on LinkedIn.
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